playing politics, American style

[veronica_rich]

So here's how it's gonna go for the presidency in 2016. Nothing really significant has changed in my predictions because of last week's GOP "debate" (please, like that was a real thing), just a couple of things solidified:

1. Trump will not get the GOP nomination and will break away to run as an Independent, Ross Perot-style. Unless he runs out of money before next November, the Democrat nominee is almost certain to win, since he will split the conservative vote.

2. Trump will get the GOP nomination, barring lack of funds to carry him through the primary or some scandal enough to sink even him. At that point, the election is really a wild card and I honestly can't say if he or the Democrat would win it - if it's Hillary, there's a chance she'll lose. If it's Sanders, he might be able to beat Trump with grassroots numbers (that's assuming those same numbers can get him through the primary first).

3. Trump will bow out of the race at some point for some reason (lack of funds, or enough encroachment from unhappy stakeholders on his business-related income to get his attention and make him drop out), at which point the race becomes unpredictable again, at least for me.

A footnote: When the GOP lost again in 2012 its leadership vowed to reexamine and be "less stupid" (the chairman's words) and recraft its message to reach more voters who weren't middle-aged and old white males. While whatever they did worked for the 2014 Congressional race, that was no real surprise since old people with money are the most likely to turn out for midterms anyway - they have the time and the financial incentive to vote, and there's nothing glamorous about midterms, let's face it. I don't think they've done anything at all toward that 2012 goal, except to scrape around and find a handful of token women and minorities willing to sell out and support the GOP brand in exchange for ... what, money? Attention? A secure job? Media exposure to be hired by Fox News later? Pick one. I believe a few may be disillusioned by the unfulfilled promise of the Democrats to look out for their interests, but I don't think it's a high percentage.

Someone asked me the other day why he never heard anything about the Tea Party anymore. I told him it's really simple: They're no longer a fringe element. They've taken over the GOP. If moderate Eisenhower Republicans want a party, they're going to have to break away and create a third. They are not getting their old wealthy mailing list back.

Also: Watching the three moderators at the Fox News debate-circus aggressively questioning their own kind made me wonder about something. You know how if a studio has a successful movie and wants to make a sequel, the general storyline is to somehow bring down or otherwise try to break the beloved character(s) in order to create conflict and build interest? (Then the third installment is generally a rebuilding of the origins story from the first movie ... but that's not important for this analogy.) It occurred to me Fox has spent about 25 years striving to create the GOP monster we now see; it would make cinematic sense for them to start trying to break it down, but in a way to appeal to its vast underpaid, older, easily-led viewership. Too, not only do they no longer have the likes of Jon Stewart to compete with, they don't yet have ANYBODY like him to compete with - it makes sense to take advantage of this vacuum to try to leap in and fill that hole in some way that won't leave them exposed to his brand of ridicule and investigation. I mean, come on, did anybody else wonder why their big debate was scheduled the same night as his last show? ;-)

Comments

[pir8fancier.livejournal.com]

I think that Fox has the knives out for Trump (even though they created him) because as much as he says what the base actually thinks, the far right have spent an enormous amount of time developing their specific code for all the things that is now Trump is saying out loud. And despite their constant insistence that this is what the real America wants, the reality is (and they know this) that Trump speak is anathema to most of the electorate. It might appeal to that 25% but the 75% will annihilate the GOP at the polls if this keeps up. I think that the genie is out of the bottle and Fox is desperately trying to put it back in. Murdoch despises Trump and he's kept quiet about this until now. Murdoch must have told Ailes to change course or he'd fire him, because you'd swear that there were a bunch of Dems up there on the podium the way they went after them. Trump is destroying the GOP and they only have themselves to blame.

I predict that Trump will run on a third party ticket and that another Dem will win the White House. Meanwhile, since Trump's siphoned off the far right nut jobs, the fiscal conservatives can take back their party and start to rebuild it, and the tea partiers will, once again, be a marginalized group, much like the Wallace Dems. I doubt the GOP will make the same mistake again and incorporate these whackos back into the political fold. They will castrate them, blaming them for loosing the White House once again, which is nothing but the truth. Sadly, this will, undoubtedly, mean that the liberal Dems will try to yank the party to the left (they are weeping with joy over Bernie), leaving the center for the pickings by the rebuilt GOP. Even though I'm basically a socialist, I have the smarts to realize that I'm in the way minority. This is a conservative country, and the Dems will start losing again if they try to yank the party to the left. The reason why the GOP after the 2012 election tried to modify their stance and include those pesky brown people is that a large majority of Hispanics are quite conservative. This strategy actually had some validity until you had Rubio abandon his immigration bill and then idiots like Trump calling Mexicans a bunch of rapists. It's hard to see who the GOP appeals to but old white racist sexist men on fixed pensions, who are dying off even as I type.

[veronica-rich.livejournal.com]

There is so much upheaval and change in attitudes going on right now, I do wonder if in 2-3 generations we'll be more socialist (or fully socialist) as a country. There are still a fair number of young conservatives, I'm sure, but it's becoming less acceptable to be an asshole for the sake of racism, sexism, etc. (being an asshole just because, on the other hand, never goes out of style). I'd say "we'll see" but we won't be around quite that long. Maybe from the ether, if there is one.

[pir8fancier.livejournal.com]

What I love about Bernie Saunders is that he took the rage of the 99% and legitimized it. He's some old white guy who is touting the same message, but he's doing it on podiums and not on the street. My frustration with the 99% protests was that they glorified in the loosey-goosey feel and didn't want it organized. Well, that very lack of organization made it very easy to ignore and discredit. When you start trashing businesses (which is what happened in Oakland), then you lose a huge hunk of the message. I wish people would stop smashing windows and start voting!